A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
