Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
